Nigeria enters decisive election month

Political activities across Nigeria have intensified as preparations for the 2027 general elections move into a decisive phase, with party primaries, coalition realignments, and regulatory deadlines shaping the emerging contest.

Across the country, internal party struggles are dominating the political space, with disputes over nomination methods, endorsement battles, factional disagreements, and court cases adding tension ahead of the polls. Analysts say governance has increasingly taken a back seat as political actors focus on securing party tickets.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is currently overseeing key pre-election requirements, including the submission of party membership registers, with a deadline set for May 10. So far, only the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has complied among 21 registered parties.

INEC is also managing preparations for multiple elections, including senatorial and legislative by-elections scheduled for June 20 in several states, alongside governorship polls in Ekiti and later in Osun. Campaign activities have already begun in some of these states.

Coalition collapse and emerging party alignments

A proposed opposition coalition reportedly collapsed after failing to agree on a unified structure and presidential candidate. The breakdown followed disagreements among key political actors and competing ambitions.

Former Anambra State governor Peter Obi has moved to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), alongside other prominent politicians, while reports suggest the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is positioning itself around former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The developments have reshaped expectations of a four-party presidential race involving the APC, ADC, NDC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Political observers say veteran politicians including Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are aligning with new platforms ahead of the elections, though questions remain over party cohesion and ideological direction.

State-level uncertainty and key political figures

Attention is also focused on Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, whose next political move remains unclear. Speculation continues over whether he will align with emerging opposition structures or pursue alternative political ambitions.

Within parties, several states are experiencing internal disputes over consensus candidates and direct primaries, with states such as Oyo, Rivers, Bauchi, Ebonyi, Adamawa and Abia identified as flashpoints. Other states have reportedly reached consensus arrangements for key positions.

Primary elections and timelines

APC has scheduled its presidential primary for May 23, with screening of aspirants running from May 6 to 12. Other primaries include Senate (May 18), House of Representatives (May 15), and governorship (May 21).

The ADC has fixed its presidential primary for May 25, while the Labour Party (LP) plans its presidential primary for May 23. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) and other smaller parties have also announced convention dates within the same period.

Legal disputes and party crises

Several opposition parties are currently facing ongoing legal disputes over leadership and legitimacy. In one case involving the ADC, competing claims over national leadership remain unresolved in court.

The PDP is also experiencing internal conflict, with rival factions disputing the outcome of leadership arrangements and judicial interpretations of recent Supreme Court rulings. Analysts warn that these disputes could affect party cohesion ahead of the primaries unless resolved.

Outlook

With primaries underway and alliances shifting, political analysts describe the current period as one of the most consequential phases in the build-up to the 2027 elections. The coming weeks are expected to determine candidate emergence, party strength, and the structure of the national contest.

Source: The Nation (May 6, 2026)