Peter Obi and 2027 dilemma

The 2027 presidential election holds a lot for Peter Obi. His decision in the next couple of days will decide his political future. It will be either another springboard for his presidential ambition or an end to it. A closer analysis of recent developments suggests that the latter awaits him and he risks being termed a betrayer of the coalition and being loathed among career politicians, rightly or wrongly.

Obi is most likely to leave the ADC if his insistence on being on the ballot in 2027 is to be held unto. He has no chance of clinching the ADC's presidential ticket, irrespective of whether the primary is direct or through consensus.

The ADC coalition was built for Atiku by the people, who believe that to wrestle power from president Bola Tinubu, it will require the pairing of an influential Northerner and an influential southerner. While one might argue that Obi is with the people and has a chance of winning the ADC primary election if the direct system is adopted, my question remains, how many of his obidients are card carrying members of the ADC? How many of them can go all out to make it happen?

The career politicians, who put in all in politics, will favour Atiku over Obi. Moreover, the ADC take-over by the coalition was sponsored by the Atiku bloc. How much did the Obi bloc contribute in the settlement of the exited Ralp Nwosu led NWC? How much did the Obi bloc contribute to other logistics and how many of his men are in the David Mark-led National Working Committee of the ADC?

The ADC was never meant to work. Aside the work of the fifth columnists, the hurried arrangement to grab power is foundationally faulty and cannot be equated to that of the arrangement that gave birth to the APC, where every political bloc conceded to a common ambition, rooted in power allocations and control agreements.

The blocs that joined the ADC coalition never coalesced. Every bloc has an interest to protect; nobody wants to compromise or give up an ambition in the general interest of the party. Atiku Abubakar bloc remains his bloc, Peter Obi bloc remains his bloc and Rabiu Kwankwaso's bloc remains his bloc. Assuming that everybody stays put and the ADC goes to the primary election and Obi/Kwankwaso ticket emerges, the Atiku bloc will never work for the coalition.

What then lies for Obi? If he must be on the ballot, that chance is outside the ADC. However, it will come with consequences. It will affect his image; he will be tagged desperate and dishonest. The Atiku camp will launch vitriol on him to decapitate and damage his reputation. His defections will become a subject matter and it will be used to describe or paint him as unreliable, sneaky, treacherous and elusive to challenges. It might not change the minds of the fanatics obidients and loyal Nigerians, who see him as the 'messiah', but he will lose people.

Ultimately, his outing will fall short of that of 2023. He will not mount a challenge to Tinubu.

Here's a bitter truth and the reality. Obi's decision to join ADC was never a right one. Giving the trajectory and antecedents of Atiku, such decision shouldn't have been made without concrete political pact or agreement. Irrespective of who gets the ADC ticket, it will be very difficult to defeat Tinubu.

Incurable optimists will disagree with this, but the fact remains that politics in Nigeria is reality rather than ideality. The track record of Tinubu gives an idea of what the 2027 presidential election will be like. Watch and see the brigandage and voter suppression that will happen in 2027. Watch and see how the beneficiaries of his government will fight with everything in them.

Tinubu's government is currently running at least fifteen 'empowerment/ support' initiatives through the federal government, the office of the first lady and groups, all aimed at the 2027 election. They are not doing it because they care or like the suffering Nigerians, they are doing it to build support/voter bases.

Those banking on ADC to win 2027 presidential election are building a castle in the air. The coalition was not built to work, funnily, fanatics are still romanticising their political fantasy. If Obi leaves the ADC, the coalition is dead, if Obi stays in the ADC, the coalition will not coalesce.

I see Peter Obi in another party if his dream is to be on the 2027 ballot. By the way, in as much as the 2027 presidential election is president Bola Tinubu’s to lose, either by hook or by crook, fragmented opposition is a sure 100 odds for Tinubu’s re-election.

Okonkwo Franklin Ebuka writes from Awka, Anambra.