Months to election, Nigeria’s opposition in chaos

Divisions within Nigeria’s opposition parties are deepening ahead of the 2027 general election, amid growing disagreements over plans to form a united front against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

According to a report by The Sun Nigeria, the opposition coalition has been thrown into uncertainty following the reported defection of Peter Obi from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the newly formed National Democratic Congress (NDC).

The newspaper said the move had intensified accusations of betrayal among opposition figures and complicated efforts to build a single alliance capable of challenging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC in the next election.

The report said the ADC had initially been conceived as a broad coalition platform bringing together leading opposition politicians, including Mr Obi, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and former Kano State governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.

However, the departure of Mr Obi and Mr Kwankwaso was described as a major setback for the coalition, leaving Mr Atiku as the party’s most prominent figure.

Several politicians, including Senators Victor Umeh and Rufai Hanga, were also reported to have joined the NDC, while Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe reportedly returned to the Labour Party.

The report said the NDC, which was registered by former Bayelsa State governor Seriake Dickson, had emerged as the new political platform for supporters of Mr Obi, widely known as the “Obidient” movement.

There has also been speculation about a possible Obi-Kwankwaso presidential ticket, although no official announcement has been made.

Speaking to the newspaper, ADC Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi alleged that the defections had been planned in advance, citing earlier meetings involving opposition leaders.

Other ADC figures, including Oladimeji Fabiyi and former senator Dino Melaye, criticised Mr Obi’s exit and questioned his ability to manage political challenges.

Supporters of the NDC, however, accused Mr Atiku of attempting to dominate the coalition process and refusing to уступ the presidential ticket to southern candidates.

The report argued that the opposition risks repeating the fragmented voting pattern seen during the 2023 election, when opposition votes were split among multiple candidates.

Official figures from Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed that President Tinubu secured 8.79 million votes in 2023, while Mr Atiku and Mr Obi received 6.98 million and 6.10 million votes respectively.

Analysts quoted in the report said a divided opposition could again strengthen the APC’s chances in 2027, particularly if opposition parties fail to agree on a single candidate.

The newspaper also highlighted renewed speculation surrounding former President Goodluck Jonathan and a possible return to presidential politics.

According to the report, some political observers believe a Jonathan candidacy could reshape alliances ahead of the election because, constitutionally, he would only be eligible for one additional four-year term if allowed to contest.

However, legal uncertainty remains over whether Mr Jonathan is eligible to run again under constitutional amendments limiting tenure for presidents who complete a predecessor’s term.

Political analyst Efiye Bribena told the newspaper that opposition parties were attempting to adopt a more strategic approach than in 2023 and could still agree on a single candidate before the election.

The report concluded that while the APC retains the advantage of incumbency, worsening economic conditions and rising public dissatisfaction could still provide an opening for opposition parties if they manage to unite effectively.

Source: The Sun